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How Tesla (TSLA) Can Easily Go Up 300% From Here

July 11, 2013 1:02 PM EDT
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Price: $393.45 -7.49%

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    29 Buy, 26 Hold, 16 Sell

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Up 269 percent year-to-date, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is arguably the hottest stock in the market today. However, if one analyst's assessment of decade-end production goals is accurate shares could still go up another 300 percent from here.

With Tesla targeting 500,000 units a year by the end of the decade, Northland Capital Markets senior analyst Colin Rusch believes this could support a stock price at $300-$500/share.

Coming up with such a seemingly aggressive number, Rusch believes at this level of production, 70-80 percent of units will be Generation 3 - the planned lower price point mass-market vehicle. Still with an average selling price of $50,000 per car and 10% next margins, EPS would be around $17, the analyst notes.

At this level of EPS, a $300 stock price would suggest a P/E multiple of under 18x. A $500 stock price would suggest a P/E multiple of just over 29x. Both reasonable assumptions if earnings can reach that level.

Rusch currently has an Outperform rating and $95 price target on Tesla, although the price target is under review.

Shares of Telsa are up 2 percent mid-day to $124.72.


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