Based on History, Apple (AAPL) Has "Room-To-Run" After iPad Launch

While there has been volatility in shares of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) today after this weekend's iPad launch, there has been no "sell the news" reaction from investors. Shares are currently up fractionally to $236.20.

Apple said it sold over 300,000 iPads in the US as of midnight Saturday, April 3 (including deliveries of pre-orders). While not as lofty as some views of 500,000-700,000 units, it was a strong debut.

In fact, the iPad sold more units than the iPhone in its launch. The iPhone sold 270,000.

Looking at the solid release of the iPad, it may be appropriate to compare trading in the shares into and after the release of the iPhone versus the iPad.

iPhone Trading:

• Official Announcment: January 9, 2007 - Share Price = $85.47 (Jan 8, 2007)
  
• Official Launch: 6PM on June 29 2007 - Share Price = $122.04 (Jan 29, 2007) 43% Gain from Announcement
  
• Day After Official Launch: Shares Price = $121.26 (July 2, 2007) 0.6% Loss from Launch
  
• One Month After Official Launch: Share Price = $141.43 (July 30, 2007) 16% Gain from Launch
  
• Two Months After Official Launch: Share Price = $134.08 (Aug 29, 2007) 10% Gain from Launch
  
• One Year After Official Launch: Share Price = $157.08 (July 29, 2008) 29% Gain from Launch

iPad Trading:

• Official Announcement: January 27 2010 - Share Price $205.94 (Jan 26, 2010)
  
• Official Launch: Saturday April 3, 2010: Share Price $235.97 (April 1, 2010) 15% Gain from Announcement
  
• Day After Official Launch: Today
  
• One Month After Official Launch: Share Price = ?
  
• Two Months After Official Launch: Shares Price = ?
  
• One Year After Official Launch: Shares Price =?

Looking at this data you will see that with the iPhone, shares of Apple ran up 43% from the announcement into the launch. The run-up from the iPad was only 15%. Shares sold off a mere 0.6% the day after iPhone launch, but were up 16% a month after the launch, 10% two months after and 29% a year after.

If Apple shares, after the iPad, were to trade in a similar pattern to the iPhone launch, they would be $273.70 a month from now and $304.40 a year from now. So shares have room to run after the launch.

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