Cowen Sees 3 Possible Outcomes from Comey Testimony

Cowen's Washington Research Group analyst Chris Krueger sees 3 possible outcomes for Comey testimony from 10am-1pm: 1) Open Sesame; 2) Half a Loaf (base case); 3) Nothing Burger.

1. Open Sesame. Comey discusses all his conversations with President Trump and breaks all kinds of new ground on Russia investigation. This seems very unlikely given that it could imperil/muddy the investigation by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller. Press accounts have reported that Mueller and Comey have met post Comey's termination and Mueller is aware of Comey's opening remarks that were published yesterday. The Flynn discussion will likely be a focus for committee Democrats - along with the alleged loyalty request demanded by Trump. This scenario would see Comey deviate from his prepared remarks and discussing aspects of his interactions with Trump that were not approved by Mueller. Very unlikely in our view given his opening statement release.

2. Half a Loaf. This is the conventional wisdom's base case - Comey sticks to his opening remarks but he offers one or two new pieces of information in the q-and-a session that will set Twitter ablaze...along with creating more questions than answers so the Committee investigators will go down other avenues and the only thing that will progress on Capitol Hill is more investigations.

3. Nothing Burger. Entirely possible, though Comey has a track-record of playing the role of Congressional witness down to a tee. It would be surprising for him to offer no new information or personal viewpoints, but nothing about this process has been consistent, linear, or normal. It is also worth noting that Comey may have some tough questions to answer from his Congressional critics: why are we just now hearing about these conversations, why did you wait until after you were terminated, etc? We would also flag that the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll has 55% of those polled saying they have "just some or no trust in what James Comey says about possible Russian interference."

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