UBS adjusts Broadcom TPU model on v10 design changes

Investing.com -- UBS analysts updated their estimates for Broadcom's TPU product roadmap following supply chain checks that revealed changes to Google's chip development plans.

The firm's research indicates Google is replacing the previously planned v9 generation, known as Pumafish, with multiple 3nm compute dies larger than the current 3nm v8i Sunfish configuration. These chips will be connected in a multi-chip module format. UBS expects this design to account for most TPU volume in 2028 after production begins in late 2027.

Broadcom management confirmed during discussions that the company remains engaged for two generations beyond v8i, according to UBS. Some investors had expressed concern about the absence of 2nm wafer allocations for Broadcom in the supply chain.

The analysts now believe Broadcom will transition to 2nm process technology for v10, which is expected to begin shipping in late 2028 and represent the majority of TPU volume in 2029. The v10 design is expected to incorporate 3.5D packaging technology, scaling up to 16 dies in a single package and featuring Broadcom's 448G SerDes technology.

Charlie Kawwas, President of Broadcom's Semiconductor Solutions Group, has referenced similar capabilities at recent industry events, UBS noted.

The firm highlighted that these devices are becoming larger and more modular as companies developing frontier AI models seek to integrate additional functionality within the package, including SRAM and ARM CPU cores.

Broadcom's joint venture with Toppan, Advanced Substrate Technologies, recently opened the first FC-BGA facility in Singapore, expanding the company's packaging capabilities. UBS expects TSMC's CoWoS to continue providing approximately 75% of Broadcom's packaging needs through the v10 generation.

The firm adjusted its unit expectations while maintaining its revenue forecasts for Broadcom unchanged.

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