U.S. spending intentions improve despite worsening economic sentiment

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Despite the weakening outlook, consumers showed increased willingness to spend on electronics over the medium term. Net spending intentions for the next six months improved by 7 percentage points month-on-month to -10%, indicating a shrinking share of consumers planning to cut back. The rebound was broad-based, spanning both lower- and higher-income groups.

However, near-term spending signals were less encouraging. One-month forward expectations for electronics and PC purchases declined, suggesting softer demand in the immediate term and reflecting typical seasonal weakness compounded by economic uncertainty.

Analysts noted that the divergence between worsening sentiment and improving spending intentions is unusual, given the historically strong correlation between the two indicators. The report highlighted a lagged relationship, suggesting that the recent drop in sentiment could weigh on spending intentions in the coming months.

Geopolitical tensions emerged as a key factor shaping consumer attitudes, with 29% of respondents citing global conflicts as a top concern for the year—an elevated level compared with prior periods.

Morgan Stanley cautioned that ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic volatility are likely to keep both sentiment and spending intentions fluctuating in the near term, posing challenges for the consumer electronics and broader IT hardware sectors.