Stifel cuts 2026 Macau gaming revenue forecast

Investing.com -- Macau's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported April gross gaming revenues of 19.89 billion patacas, approximately $2.6 billion, marking a 5.5% increase from the prior year's 18.86 billion patacas. The result fell short of the 9% ConsensusMetrix consensus forecast.

April revenues declined 12% on a monthly sequential basis and remained 15.7% below 2019 levels.

Stifel adjusted its 2026 Macau gaming revenue growth forecast to a range of 5% to 9%, down from previous expectations, representing approximately 9% below 2019 levels at the midpoint. The revised forecast aligns more closely with the current ConsensusMetrix consensus of 7.4%.

Visitation to Macau has remained strong and surpassed 2019 levels, but mass gambling spend per visitor continues to track well below historical levels. The VIP and premium mass business has returned to the market, while the base mass business segment lags behind.

Macau operators have increased marketing and promotional activities to attract VIP and premium mass customers. VIP volumes currently hover around 30% of 2019 levels.

April historically represents a sequential decline as it falls between the Chinese New Year holiday and the May Day Holiday. Stifel expects the upcoming May Day Holiday to drive strong visitation to Macau.

For May, Stifel projects a 6% to 10% increase in total gaming revenues, approximately 12% below 2019 levels. The firm anticipates second-quarter 2026 will show a 4% to 8% year-over-year increase in revenues.

Macau-centric stocks continue to trade at discounts to historical long-term valuation metrics.

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