SpaceX D2C aggression triggers Piper Sandler downgrade of AST SpaceMobile

Investing.com -- Ast Spacemobile Inc (NASDAQ: ASTS) shares dropped roughly 5% in premarket trading Tuesday following a downgrade from Piper Sandler, which cited mounting competitive pressure and potential satellite launch bottlenecks driven by SpaceX’s expanding direct-to-cell (D2C) ambitions.

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter lowered his rating on the satellite communications developer from Overweight to Neutral while cutting the price target to $54.00 from $98.00. The sharp target reduction reflects reduced conviction in the pace of AST SpaceMobile's commercial satellite launches projected for 2026 and 2027, driven primarily by SpaceX's aggressive moves to cement control over the D2C market.

The primary catalyst behind the downgrade was SpaceX’s decision to commit approximately $8 billion toward acquiring mobile spectrum. Potter highlighted that if SpaceX actively seeks to disadvantage traditional mobile network operators (MNOs), it could theoretically restrict launch availability for MNO-aligned partners such as AST SpaceMobile, while simultaneously squeezing pricing power through competitive cellular services or proprietary hardware.

Despite de-risking financial models in the near term, Piper Sandler maintained a constructive long-term outlook beyond 2027. The firm noted that SpaceX's heightened aggression will likely intensify urgency and demand among major global telecommunications carriers to partner with independent service providers like AST SpaceMobile.

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