Ottawa models unconventional defense against potential U.S. incursion - Report

Investing.com -- The Canadian Armed Forces have developed a theoretical model to address a hypothetical military invasion by the United States, according to reporting from The Globe and Mail, citing two anonymous senior government officials. This conceptual framework marks the first time in a century that Ottawa has formally modeled an assault from its primary security partner and NATO ally.

According to The Globe and Mail, military planners acknowledge that Canada lacks the conventional personnel and sophisticated hardware required to repel a full-scale American advance. Consequently, the modeling focuses on irregular warfare tactics, including sabotage and drone strikes, to counter an occupying force.

Strategic estimates cited by the article suggest that American forces could potentially overcome Canada’s primary land and sea positions within a window of two to seven days. To combat this, officials are reportedly looking at historical insurgencies, noting that Canada is "rapidly changing" and becoming "hostile" to U.S. interests according to some American observers.

Military assets are currently being weighed against the prospect of the Trump administration pursuing aggressive territorial ambitions in the Arctic and Greenland. This assessment comes as observers weigh whether Trump’s previous calls for Canada to become the "51st state" could eventually be backed by military force.

The proposed defense strategy draws heavily on hit-and-run tactics successfully utilized by the Afghan mujahedeen and the Taliban. Planners envision small groups of armed civilians and irregular military units executing ambushes to impose significant costs on any invading personnel.

Retired major-general David Fraser noted the psychological shift required for domestic defense, stating to The Globe and Mail that "There is a quantum difference between defending another land like Canadians did in Afghanistan versus defending Windsor, Ontario." He suggested that Canadian soldiers would be placed along the border despite the lack of a realistic possibility of defeating the U.S. militarily.

The modeling serves as a stark indicator of the shifting threat assessment being discussed by Canadian officials regarding the current U.S. administration. Fraser emphasized that a violation of Canadian sovereignty would likely trigger international intervention, remarking, “You know if you come after Canada, you are going to have the world coming after you, even more than Greenland.”

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