Morgan Stanley maintains ratings on Marqeta and NerdWallet

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley kept its Equal-weight rating on Marqeta Inc. (NASDAQ: MQ) with a $20 price target unchanged, while maintaining its Underweight rating on NerdWallet Inc. (NASDAQ: NRDS) and lowering its price target to $8 from $9.

Marqeta reported its fourth consecutive quarter of total payment volume growth exceeding 30% year-over-year, reaching a $91 billion base. Lending, including buy now pay later, increased 40% year-over-year, while expense management grew 50%.

Morgan Stanley noted that continued surprises on renewals and incentive timing make it difficult to become more positive on the stock. The firm expressed concern about the predictability of key customer diversification.

The bank reduced its gross profit growth estimates for 2027 and 2028 to approximately 13% from 16% and 15% respectively. Morgan Stanley cited two factors: uncertainty around the size of Cash App net new issuance headwinds in 2027, and the possibility of key customers continuing to diversify, particularly with Flex Credential.

Value-added services currently represent just 7% of gross profit. The firm applied a 2.25x multiple to its 2028 gross profit estimate of $625.5 million to reach its $20 price target.

For NerdWallet, the company grew revenue by $10 million year-over-year in the second quarter of 2026 to $197 million, up 5.6%. Sales and marketing expenses increased $17 million to $145 million, representing 73.7% of revenue compared to 68.5% in the prior year period.

Performance marketing grew $26.5 million year-over-year to $116 million, or 58.8% of revenue and 79.8% of total sales and marketing, compared to 47.8% and 69.9% in the second quarter of 2025.

Morgan Stanley said it wants to see evidence that NerdWallet's investments meet measurable return thresholds and that revenue growth can be sustained without performance marketing remaining near current levels. The firm applied a 3x multiple to its revised 2028 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $163.7 million for its $8 price target.

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