Match Group downgraded by JP Morgan amid Tinder challenges

Investing.com -- JP Morgan downgraded the Match Group Inc (NASDAQ: MTCH) to "neutral" from "overweight" and cut its price target to $33 from $40, given ongoing struggles with Tinder’s turnaround.

There is a limited visibility in the timing and magnitude of the Tinder turnaround. The brokerage noted that stabilizing Tinder’s user and revenue trends has proven harder than anticipated, with growth unlikely to resume until 2027.

Shares of Tinder parent were down 0.7%. Stock has lost about 14% value year to date.

JPMorgan cut its Tinder revenue estimates by 10% for 2026, projecting a 6% decline in 2025 and flat performance in 2026.

“Global online dating spend remained stagnant in 2024, and we expect muted growth to persist in 2025,” analyst noted.

Brokerage views that industry consolidation is a real possibility in the not-too-distant future, while being skeptical on the potential of taking the companies private.

While Match aims to leverage AI-driven product innovation and social integrations to reignite Tinder’s growth, JPMorgan warned that execution remains critical. The bank suggested potential upside could come from an increased focus on the company’s dividend yield or activist pressure.

“We expect revenue to decline for Tinder and Bumble (NASDAQ: BMBL) in 2025, with Tinder not forecasted to return to growth until 2027.”

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