Jefferies reports benign Atlantic hurricane season so far

Investing.com -- Jefferies released meteorological data on Thursday showing the Atlantic hurricane season has remained benign through its statistical peak on September 10, with only 5 named storms and no hurricanes recorded.

The global reinsurance industry could see a profitable third quarter in 2026 if the season continues its current pattern, according to the report.

Colorado State University maintained its overall storm count forecast but reduced landfall probabilities across multiple regions. The university now projects a 16% probability for the entire US coastline, down from 17%, while the US East Coast including Florida stands at 7%, down from 8%. The Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle is now at 9%, down from 10%, and the Caribbean major hurricane probability dropped to 17% from 19%.

Tropical Storm Risk lowered its August forecast, now expecting 10 named tropical storms, down from 11, along with 4 hurricanes instead of 5, and 1 major hurricane rather than 2. The organization cited less favorable conditions in the sub-tropical Atlantic compared to a month earlier.

The US Midwest and Mid-Atlantic region experienced a severe convective storm outbreak from August 9 to August 12. Guy Carpenter estimated losses at $5.1 billion, making it a top 10 industry loss event. Gallagher Re estimated year-to-date industry losses from US severe convective storm activity exceeded $35 billion.

Western Europe faced a severe convective storm outbreak from August 24 to August 28, affecting France, Switzerland and Italy. Gallagher Re expects total industry losses to reach €2.5 billion.

Nepal's government estimated total economic losses from late August flooding at around $1.3 billion, with rebuilding costs up to $5 billion.

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