JPMorgan cautious on Hims & Hers on GLP-1 transition risk

Investing.com -- JPMorgan revealed Friday that it has started coverage of Hims & Hers Health at Neutral, setting a December 2027 price target of $32 as it weighs the direct-to-consumer health platform's rapid growth against execution risks in its shift to branded weight-loss drugs.

Analyst Bryan Smilek said Hims & Hers, which has about 2.9 million subscribers across specialties including weight loss, women's health and hair loss, is navigating a strategic transition in its GLP-1 business.

The company revealed in March it would prioritize branded, FDA-approved medications and stop advertising compounded GLP-1 offerings.

Under a partnership with Novo Nordisk, Hims is said to have fulfilled more than 125,000 Wegovy shipments in the first six weeks of launch.

"We believe the Novo partnership should more than offset compounded GLP-1 headwinds," Smilek wrote, projecting 2026 GLP-1 revenue of $1.1 billion, up 46%, split between a decline in compounded sales and a surge in branded volumes.

Smilek pointed to a long runway, noting JPMorgan estimates U.S. cash-pay GLP-1 users could reach more than 8 million by 2030, from about 2.8 million today.

The company is targeting 2030 revenue of more than $6.5 billion and adjusted EBITDA above $1.3 billion, aided by international expansion, new specialties such as peptides and AI-driven efficiency.

"We're positive on HIMS' vertical integration and leading brand scale and expansion across specialties & geos," the analyst wrote.

But he said he wants to see execution on the branded GLP-1 transition, durable growth in newer specialties and margin expansion.

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