Has Tesla solved the self-driving puzzle? This analyst thinks so

Investing.com -- In a note to clients on Wednesday, Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter argued that Tesla has effectively achieved Level 4 autonomy in most conditions, laying out six reasons why he believes the company has solved the self-driving puzzle despite persistent skepticism from clients and investors.

Potter acknowledged that Waymo's greater robotaxi deployment numbers are frequently cited in client meetings as a reason to doubt Tesla's readiness, and that a lack of universally accepted, comparable safety datasets adds to the uncertainty.

Nevertheless, Piper Sandler maintained an Overweight rating on Tesla, stating that the company has “solved the self driving puzzle.”

Potter pointed to Tesla's decision to offer insurance discounts for FSD-enabled policies as a signal of internal confidence in the software's reliability.

Volume production of Cybercabs, which feature no steering wheels or pedals, began in April, with hundreds being built per week and a production line Piper Sandler estimates could cost "several hundred million USD (if not $1B+)."

Potter argued the capital commitment alone implies confidence in FSD readiness.

Additional signals cited include Tesla's disclosure of FSD subscription data for the first time in the first quarter of 2026, which Piper Sandler said implies "FSD is ready for dissemination beyond early adopters," and the company's expanding robotaxi footprint, now covering the entire Austin metro area including interstates, with seven additional city launches targeted by the first half of 2026.

Potter also drew on personal experience, noting that his Tesla drove him from Missoula to Minneapolis in April. "There's no substitute for personal experience," he wrote.

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