Gordon Haskett reviews restaurant sector estimate revisions

Investing.com -- Gordon Haskett analyzed calendar 2026 Street estimate revisions for more than 20 restaurant companies across same-store sales, earnings per share, EBITDA and revenue over the last four quarters.

The firm found that 12 of 22 companies in its data set saw calendar 2026 Street estimates either hold or move higher after second-quarter earnings. Nine companies saw upward revisions to calendar 2026 numbers, three saw estimates hold and 10 saw downward revisions.

The Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE), Bloomin' Brands (NASDAQ: BLMN), BJ's Restaurants (NASDAQ: BJRI) and Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) were the only four companies to see upward revisions across all metrics for calendar 2026 estimates.

Papa Johns (NASDAQ: PZZA), Wendy's (NASDAQ: WEN), Jack in the Box (NASDAQ: JACK), Portillo's (NASDAQ: PTLO), Wingstop (NASDAQ: WING) and Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) saw downward revisions across all 2026 Street estimates.

Over a 12-month period, the sector saw greater downward revision pressure with 14 of 22 companies seeing Street estimates revised down. El Pollo Loco (NASDAQ: LOCO), Dutch Bros (NYSE: BROS), Brinker International (NYSE: EAT) and Cheesecake Factory stood out with upward revisions over the trailing 12 months.

Papa Johns, Portillo's, Jack in the Box, Wendy's and Fireworks (NYSE: FWRG) saw the largest downward revisions over the same period.

The restaurant sector posted a 6% average share price gain over the trailing 12 months ended August 24, 2026, compared with an 18% gain for the S&P 500. Casual dining segment names outperformed materially, while fast casual and pizza segment names underperformed.

Revisions to same-store sales estimates maintained the strongest correlation with share price moves. Over the trailing 12 months, average revisions across earnings per share, EBITDA, revenue and same-store sales saw a 0.67 correlation with share price movement, with same-store sales at 0.68.

Dutch Bros, Domino's Pizza (NYSE: DPZ) and Wingstop showed the greatest divergence between revision trends and share price moves. Gordon Haskett views all three stocks as undervalued.

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