Goldman Sachs cuts smartphone shipment forecast for 2026-28

Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs reduced its smartphone shipment estimates for 2026 through 2028 on Wednesday, citing continuous cost pressures and a growing share of high-end devices that show less sensitivity to price changes.

The investment bank lowered its global smartphone volume projections by 1 million, 8 million, and 0.2 million units to 1.1 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.2 billion units for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively. The revised figures represent year-over-year changes of -10%, +2%, and +2%, compared to the previous estimates of -10%, +3%, and +1%.

Goldman Sachs raised its value estimates to account for higher average selling prices. The firm projects smartphone market value will increase 8%, 5%, and 3% year-over-year to $624 billion, $655 billion, and $674 billion for 2026 through 2028. The growth is expected to come from higher memory costs and increased demand for premium phones priced above $600.

The bank maintains a positive outlook on foldable phone adoption, anticipating new product launches from major manufacturers, including a foldable iPhone DUO. Goldman Sachs forecasts global foldable phone penetration will reach 3.1%, 5.7%, and 6.5% in 2026, 2027, and 2028, down from previous estimates of 3.6%, 5.9%, and 6.8%. This translates to 35 million, 66 million, and 77 million units, representing decreases of 14%, 4%, and 5% compared to prior projections.

The firm expects market premiumization to continue as new form factors and features create additional use cases and improve user experience.

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