Citi sees Czechia inflation rising on fuel prices

Investing.com - Citi forecasts headline inflation in Czechia will edge up to 1.9% year-over-year in August from 1.7% in July, driven mainly by an acceleration in fuel prices. Core inflation is expected to ease slightly to 2.9% from 3.0%, with persistent services inflation continuing to be supported by solid wage growth and domestic demand.

Calendar-adjusted industrial production in Czechia is expected to slow to 3.2% year-over-year in July from 4.0% in June. July production is typically affected by planned factory shutdowns, particularly in the automotive industry and related engineering sectors.

Citi estimates consumer price inflation in Hungary rose to 1.4% year-over-year in August from 1.2% in July. Weekly data from fuel stations suggest approximately 5.5% month-over-month rise in fuel prices, while food prices are expected to drop 0.6%. Industrial output is expected to increase 3% compared to the corresponding period of 2025.

Citi expects Poland's Monetary Policy Council to leave the reference rate unchanged at 3.75%. In July the NBP governor signaled a possibility of rate cuts, but in light of recent inflation developments and the sharp rise in long-term yields, the policy message is expected to be more cautious this time.

Citi forecasts South Africa's Q2 GDP will contract by around 0.3% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted. Wholesale trade sank 4.2% quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted, while mining and electricity production fell 2.8% and 2.5% respectively. Manufacturing production contracted 1.6%.

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