China e-commerce sees 3% growth in July, recovery expected Macquarie says

Investing.com -- China's online physical goods gross merchandise value grew 3% year-over-year in July, according to data from Macquarie, with average order value declining 1% during the same period.

The National Bureau of Statistics reported on August 17 that total online retail sales reached 1.65 trillion yuan in July on an adjusted basis, up 2.4% from the previous year. Online penetration expanded 80 basis points to 42.3%, supported by 0.6% growth in total retail sales combining online and offline channels.

Total online physical goods GMV increased 3.3% on an adjusted basis, slowing from 3.9% growth in June. Industry express parcel volume grew 7% according to the Ministry of Transportation, while average order value fell 0.8% to 56.61 yuan.

Food category spending showed the strongest performance year-to-date with 16.9% growth, followed by apparel at 5.8% and fast-moving consumer goods at 1.1%. Electronics retail sales, combining online and offline channels, declined 1.9% in July, an improvement from the 8.7% drop in June. Apparel sales fell approximately 1.0%.

E-commerce app traffic data from Questmobile showed adjusted daily active users for Douyin rose 19% and PDD increased 2%. JD, Kuaishou, Taobao, and Meituan recorded declines of 7%, 8%, 11%, and 13% respectively.

Macquarie estimates physical GMV growth of 3% to 7% for the third quarter of 2026 as the comparison base from trade-in policies normalizes.

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