Bernstein raises eCommerce estimates on stronger Q2 growth data

Investing.com -- Bernstein analysts said US eCommerce stocks are gaining attention as preliminary data suggests the sector grew 11% in the second quarter, according to a note released Wednesday. The growth rate represents an acceleration from the first quarter and the 5-6% observed in earlier quarters, with sales events contributing to the improvement.

The firm raised its gross merchandise volume estimates for the sector heading into earnings reports, though it noted expectations are now higher. For Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), the focus remains on Amazon Web Services rather than retail operations.

Bernstein said second-quarter AWS expectations are elevated following strong Google Cloud Platform results, with analysts now looking for mid-30% or higher AWS growth. The firm said AWS margins could face modest pressure in the second quarter due to stock-based compensation timing before improving in the third quarter.

On capital expenditures, Bernstein does not expect a meaningful increase to 2026 guidance, though it said 2027 figures will likely rise significantly for all companies. The firm cited Amazon's recent capacity expansion plans and debt-financing activities as evidence.

For Etsy (NASDAQ: ETSY), Bernstein raised its second-quarter gross merchandise sales estimate above guidance to $2.55 billion, representing 6% year-over-year growth. The firm attributed the stock's recent rise to strengthening alternative data and said better eCommerce conditions, product listing ad optimization, and average selling price inflation are contributing factors.

Bernstein forecast eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) second-quarter GMV at $21.9 billion, or 11% year-over-year on a foreign exchange neutral basis, above the company's 8-10% guidance. The firm said the data it tracks points to resilience in the second quarter.

For Wayfair (NYSE: W), Bernstein projected 6.5% year-over-year revenue growth for the second quarter and a gross margin of 29.8%. The firm said its data set points to modest improvement in active customer growth.

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