Analyst says iPhone 18 demand weakness is "intensifying"

Investing.com -- Jefferies believes underlying demand for Apple’s iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max is weakening further, with the firm pointing to shrinking lead times, falling resale prices and reported order cuts.

Analyst Edison Lee said in a note on Monday morning that lead times for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max in China have fallen to zero, compared with six and 25 days for last year’s models.

Lead times in Japan are also said to be significantly shorter year over year, though U.S. lead times for the Pro Max are up.

Chinese platform PDD began discounting the Pro and Pro Max by 6% and 9%, respectively, on Oct. 16. Resale prices for all Pro variants went to discounts from Sept. 29, while last year’s model traded at premiums of 1% to 6%.

“Our tracking continues to indicate weak demand for 18P/PM,” Lee wrote.

Industry checks suggest Apple has cut orders on some iPhone components, including 2nm chips, by 10% to 15%, according to Jefferies. They added that some supply chain players indicated that the net assembly order cut so far is only 2 million units.

“We will continue to monitor supply chain feedback, but do believe further order cuts are possible if weak demand continues,” the analyst said.

Lee also addressed the strong sell-through in China. iPhone volumes rose more than 40% year over year in the two weeks after shipments began, then slowed to about 8% in early October. Jefferies attributes that strength to discounted channel sales of iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max inventory.

Meanwhile, the foldable Duo’s lead time expanded beyond 90 days after its Oct. 16 pre-order launch. Jefferies estimates this implies a maximum of 6 million to 7 million shipments in 2026, in line with market expectations.

Original Article

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