USD/JPY above 157 should see intervention risk rise - ING

If USD/JPY moves back above 157 there is risk of further intervention, said analysts at ING.

"USD/JPY has stabilised around 156/157, which is in line with the price action dynamics after FX intervention on 22 September 2022 (as noted yesterday). If we continue to follow the September 2022 script, then USD/JPY should grind higher in the coming days. This time, USD/JPY appreciation would not just be consistent with yield differentials, but can also be triggered by a more hawkish Fed tomorrow, in our view," said ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole.

"The yen dynamics had investors speculating that the Ministry of Finance intervened in multiple blocs yesterday, at least once in Japanese trading hours, once as European markets started trading and then in the afternoon during the US session. So far, there is no official communication by Japan on FX intervention, and despite the MoF publishing intervention figures at the end of each month, those include purchases only until two days before the last trading day of the month. In March, that was the 27th, and today’s release should have its cut-off date on the 26th of April – so likely before any FX intervention. This means markets will likely need to wait until the end of May to know the size of any market intervention."

"Our base case is that the MoF has started an intervention campaign and remains open to selling more FX as USD/JPY faces further upside risks. Japanese officials’ hope is probably that a softening in US data will ultimately release pressure on the yen, especially considering that the Bank of Japan has not signalled it wants to include the currency in its monetary policy decision function. A move in USD/JPY back above 157.0 should see intervention risk rise exponentially."

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