What if the Fed hints at a September rate cut next week?

Investing.com -- The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its July 29–30 meeting, but markets are watching closely for any dovish shift that could hint at a rate cut in September, according to Yardeni Research.

“The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the July 29–30 FOMC meeting are down to 4.7%,” Yardeni said, citing CME FedWatch Tool data.

Strong June jobs data, with 147,000 payrolls added and unemployment falling to 4.1%, has pushed back expectations for an imminent move.

However, a series of softer inflation prints may nudge the Fed closer to easing.

“The latest batch of weaker-than-expected inflation reports, including the drop in July’s expected inflation series, might persuade Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues to signal they are leaning toward lowering the federal funds rate at the September 16–17 meeting,” Yardeni wrote.

A more dovish tone next week could boost equity markets, which are already riding momentum from better-than-expected second-quarter earnings, according to the firm.

“The blended (actual/estimated) S&P 500 earnings per share growth rate edged up to 4.3% y/y last week. It should be closer to 8.0% when all the results are in,” stated Yardeni.

The firm remains bullish on corporate earnings and market prospects. “S&P 500 forward earnings per share reached another record high of $284.36 last week,” they said. “We are still targeting $300 for this series by the end of the year.”

Despite valuation concerns, Yardeni believes “the S&P 500 continues to follow the lead of its forward earnings to fresh record highs,” supported by both the Magnificent 7 and a broader base of upgrades across the index.

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