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Q3 Preview: Adobe (ADBE) Needs to Get 'Creative' for Strong Results

September 20, 2011 3:55 PM EDT
Adobe Systems Inc. (Nasdaq: ADBE) is in red territory Tuesday, heading into its third-quarter earnings report.

Following the close of the markets today, Adobe is expected to report earnings of 54 cents per share on revenue of $1.03 billion. Earnings would be a slight sequential decline, but a gain of 23 percent from the same period last year.

Shares of Adobe fell 27 percent through the quarter, to $25.24 at the end of August. Adobe is down 1.7 percent since the end of the quarter, and off about 19 percent since the start of the year.

Data from Bloomberg has 12 analysts with a Buy rating, 13 at Hold, and three suggesting to Sell. The price target average is $32.50, with a low of $22 and high of $44. Adobe has traded within a range of $22.67 to $35.99 over the last 52-weeks, but shares at $24.80 currently might mean the potential for more upside.

Recently, UBS commented that it sees "VARs beating FQ3 targets, but otherwise feeling slightly more negative about macro and ADBE product sales." The firm said stock overhangs persist, including it's role in the Apple ecosystem, but with valuation at near-trough levels, UBS believes investors will soon recognize the true value of Adobe.

Goldman Sachs -- which has a Sell rating on Adobe -- is modeling for earnings of 54 cents per share and revenue of $1.021 billion. The firm said it sees slight upside stemming from Creative Suite (CS) checks.

Commenting on the quarter, Goldman said, "We note that last quarter’s Creative segment sales came in ahead of the Street at $433 mn vs. expectations of $403 mn. While NPD data has not been a perfect gauge of the company’s sales, the numbers for the ugust quarter suggest Creative revenues were up 3% qoq and flat yoy, with the education segment showing a sequential rebound but still posting a 6% yoy decline...While we view CS5 as a successful product cycle for the company’s flagship offering and continue to believe it will have a long tail, we see material acceleration in the segment’s revenues as unlikely. Given our checks for the August quarter, in our view, there is the potential for Creative sales to come in slightly ahead of our $429 mn forecast,
down 1% qoq and up 3% yoy."

Stay tuned to StreetInsider.com's EPS Insider section to see our analysis of the highly-anticipated quarterly results within seconds of their release. You can also check out Adobe's past performace at Streetinsider's Adobe financials page.


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