FedEx (FDX) Shares Slump as Q1 Outlook Looks Dismal

June 17, 2009 11:02 AM EDT
Shares of FedEx (NYSE: FDX) are remaining under pressure today following mixed Q4 results and a concerning Q1 outlook issued this morning before the market opened. After gapping about 2% lower at the open, the stock has traded relatively flat through this morning's session. FedEx shares most recently traded at $49.97.

The U.S.'s second largest mail courier reported quarterly adjusted-EPS of $0.64, a 56% drop from the $1.45 reported in the same quarter last year, but slightly better than the $0.51 analysts had been expecting. Sales for Q2 fell 20% to $7.85 billion during the quarter, which compares to the Street estimate of $8.32 billion. Also, FedEx reported an operating margin of -2.8% for the quarter, down substantially from the 6.7% reported in Q408.

Looking ahead, FedEx offered Q1 EPS guidance in the range of $0.30-$0.45, versus the analyst consensus of $0.68. Adding some color to the outlook, FedEx's CFO said, "The operating environment for our first two quarters in fiscal 2010 is expected to be extremely difficult. Manufacturing activity is expected to be substantially negative year over year through the summer and last year's first quarter results benefited from stronger economic activity, making earnings comparisons difficult. Also, the recent run-up in fuel prices will have a significant negative impact on our first quarter's results. At this time we do not have enough visibility into the economic recovery and jet fuel prices to provide a meaningful annual earnings forecast. However, we believe that FedEx will be poised for growth in our fiscal second half, as our many cost-saving initiatives gain traction and the economy begins to improve."

Most analysts and market pundits are attributing today's weakness to the concerning Q1 outlook.

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