Alcoa (AA) Misses Q2 EPS by 20c

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) reported Q2 EPS of $2.12, $0.20 worse than the analyst estimate of $2.32. Revenue for the quarter came in at $3.97 billion versus the consensus estimate of $3.99 billion.

Guidance from AA's PR:

2026 Outlook

The Company does not provide reconciliations of the forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income, including transformation, intersegment eliminations and other corporate Adjusted EBITDA; operational tax expense; and other expense; each excluding special items, to the most directly comparable forward-looking GAAP financial measures because it is impractical to forecast certain special items, such as restructuring charges and mark-to-market contracts, without unreasonable efforts due to the variability and complexity associated with predicting the occurrence and financial impact of such special items. For the same reasons, the Company is unable to address the probable significance of the unavailable information, which could be material to future results.

The Company has decreased its 2026 projection for alumina production to range between 9.5 and 9.6 million metric tons, a reduction of between 0.2 and 0.3 million metric tons from the prior projection. The Company has also decreased its 2026 projection for alumina shipments to range between 11.5 and 11.6 million metric tons, a reduction of between 0.3 and 0.4 million metric tons from the prior projection. The reductions are primarily due to lower production at the Pinjarra refinery as instability that began in late March was further exacerbated by gas supply disruptions associated with Cyclone Narelle. The overall difference between production and shipments reflects trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to fulfill customer contracts.

Alcoa expects 2026 total Aluminum segment production and shipments to remain unchanged from its prior projection, ranging between 2.4 and 2.6 million metric tons, and between 2.6 and 2.8 million metric tons, respectively.

Within the third quarter 2026 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects sequential favorable net impacts of approximately $10 million due to recovered stability at the Pinjarra refinery and lower energy prices, partially offset by planned maintenance at the Alumar refinery and Juruti mine in Brazil.

For the third quarter 2026 Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA, Alcoa expects sequential favorable impacts from efficiencies at higher production rates to fully offset higher carbon prices and seasonally lower third-party energy sales in Brazil. Based on recent pricing and expected lower shipments, Section 232 tariff costs on U.S. imports of aluminum from Canada are expected to decrease by approximately $10 million sequentially. Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are expected to be unfavorable by approximately $10 million sequentially.

Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects third quarter 2026 operational tax expense to approximate $80 million to $90 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.

For earnings history and earnings-related data on Alcoa (AA) click here.

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