RIMM - Sentiment Remains Strong and Up Ahead of Earnings
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Research in Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) is scheduled to release Q2 earnings this Thursday September 24th, after the market close.
Average analyst estimates for the Mobile Device maker are $1.00/share in EPS and $3.62 billion in Revenue. Forty-one analysts track the stock with five upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days.
Last quarter, Research in Motion beat average analysts expectations by .04/share or 4.3%, .98/share vs. .94/share.
I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates. One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release. In the case of Research in Motion, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Research in Motion to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.
I'm looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release. (piqqem leverages the 'wisdom of crowds' by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, 0 is the lowest and 4 is the highest sentiment).
The above chart shows a 6% increase in Research in Motion’s sentiment from the end of Q1 thru September 21, 2009 and an 8% increase in sentiment for the first month of the quarter. The chart also shows a 2% increase in sentiment from the end of Q2 thru today. This last indicator has historically been the most accurate indicator regarding an earnings surprise, both upside and downside. On the Piqqem scale, Research in Motion’s sentiment rating of 2.74 is considered a buy and overall sentiment is trending to the positive. Only Research in Motion knows their actual results, but their current sentiment points to Research in Motion meeting or beating expectations on Thursday.
Average analyst estimates for the Mobile Device maker are $1.00/share in EPS and $3.62 billion in Revenue. Forty-one analysts track the stock with five upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and no downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days.
Last quarter, Research in Motion beat average analysts expectations by .04/share or 4.3%, .98/share vs. .94/share.
I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates. One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release. In the case of Research in Motion, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Research in Motion to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.
I'm looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release. (piqqem leverages the 'wisdom of crowds' by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, 0 is the lowest and 4 is the highest sentiment).
The above chart shows a 6% increase in Research in Motion’s sentiment from the end of Q1 thru September 21, 2009 and an 8% increase in sentiment for the first month of the quarter. The chart also shows a 2% increase in sentiment from the end of Q2 thru today. This last indicator has historically been the most accurate indicator regarding an earnings surprise, both upside and downside. On the Piqqem scale, Research in Motion’s sentiment rating of 2.74 is considered a buy and overall sentiment is trending to the positive. Only Research in Motion knows their actual results, but their current sentiment points to Research in Motion meeting or beating expectations on Thursday.
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