David Moenning's Daily State of the Markets: 08/28
Tweet
Share
E-mail
Searching For Guidance
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Stocks spent Friday, and most of last week for that matter, searching for some sort of guidance as to which direction to head next. But with vacation season still going strong and few catalysts found to drive prices, stocks were left to flounder on Friday.
On a day where volume was light even by summer Friday standards, the traders that were present had to look hard for reasons to take action. There was some anticipation in the early going that Mr. Bernanke might either confirm or dispute the hawkish comments made by his colleagues earlier in the week and provide a clue as to what the Fed is thinking. But in the stunning surroundings of Jackson, WY, the Fed Chairman also decided to take a vacation of sorts as his speech skipped the topics of monetary policy and the state of the economy altogether.
There was also a modest negative reaction after the announcement that Iran is asking for the west to guarantee that there will be no sanctions put in place as a condition for new talks. Germany immediately said "no deal," which furthered concerns about the supply of oil in the future.
And speaking of oil, Tropical Depression Five officially became Tropical Storm Ernesto on Friday. With the anniversary of Katrina upon us, it was easy to get caught up in the projections of when Ernesto would become a hurricane and then more importantly, where its path would ultimately lead. As of Friday afternoon, forecasters were projecting that Ernesto would reach hurricane status and cut a swath directly into the oil-rich Gulf. But, by this morning, the storm is still flirting with hurricane status and its path appears to have turned more northward, with only the southern tip of Florida appearing to be at risk.
So with nothing from Mr. Bernanke, a very thin trading environment, higher oil prices, and growing concerns about the state of the housing market and the economy, it is little wonder that blue chips wound up slogging lower on Friday. And unfortunately, with another holiday weekend coming up, the lackluster environment could continue this week.
However, unlike last week, this week�s economic calendar is rather robust. While there are no economic reports slated for release today, the rest of the week is pretty full.
Tuesday � Consumer Confidence
Wednesday � 2nd Quarter GDP Preliminary Estimate
Thursday � Personal Income and Spending, Chicago Purchasing Managers, Factor Orders
Friday � Employment Report, UofM Consumer Sentiment, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing
Turning to this morning, the dull environment appears to still be in place as there is little in the way of catalysts so far. Oil is trading down more than a dollar on the news that Ernesto will apparently not pose a threat to the Gulf, but other than that, things are pretty quiet.
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the overseas markets are fractionally lower. Gold futures are moving a little higher this morning and are currently exchanging hands at $631.70. Crude futures are lower by $1.18 at the moment and are trading at $71.33. Interest rates are also little changed this morning with the 2-year currently quoted at 4.88% while the 10-yr is trading with a yield of 4.80% right now. And finally, with about an hour before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. aren�t doing much. The Dow futures are currently off by 8, the S&Ps are down by 1.20, and the NASDAQ is sporting a fractional advance on an upgrade of Intel.
Stocks "In Play" This Morning:
Starwood Hotels (HOT) � Mentioned positively in Barron�s
Hilton Hotels (HLT) � Mentioned positively in Barron�s
Altria (MO) � WSJ speculates KFT could be spun off by Wednesday
Intel (INTC) � Upgraded at Friedman Billings Ramsey
Nvidia (NVDA) � Upgraded at Friedman Billings Ramsey
Williams Sonoma (WSM) � Upgraded at Raymond James
US Steel (X) � Downgraded at Prudential
Wal-Mart (WMT) � August sales projected at high end of range
Kinder Morgan (KMI) � Entered agreement to sell to investor group
Chicos Fas (CHS) � Downgraded at CIBC
Dominion Res (D) � Downgraded at Citigroup
Universal Health (UHS) � Downgraded at Jefferies
Rohm & Haas (ROH) � Downgraded at Citigroup
Campbell Soup (CPB) � Downgraded at Credit Suisse
Brown Forman (BF.B) � Confirms purchase of Mexican tequila manufacturer
Long positions in stocks mentioned: BF.B
** For More of David Moenning�s Market Analysis, Stock Portfolios, and Trading Ideas, visit: www.TopGunsTrading.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management and Co-Founder of TopGunsTrading.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning�s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM�s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
Good Monday morning and welcome back. Stocks spent Friday, and most of last week for that matter, searching for some sort of guidance as to which direction to head next. But with vacation season still going strong and few catalysts found to drive prices, stocks were left to flounder on Friday.
On a day where volume was light even by summer Friday standards, the traders that were present had to look hard for reasons to take action. There was some anticipation in the early going that Mr. Bernanke might either confirm or dispute the hawkish comments made by his colleagues earlier in the week and provide a clue as to what the Fed is thinking. But in the stunning surroundings of Jackson, WY, the Fed Chairman also decided to take a vacation of sorts as his speech skipped the topics of monetary policy and the state of the economy altogether.
There was also a modest negative reaction after the announcement that Iran is asking for the west to guarantee that there will be no sanctions put in place as a condition for new talks. Germany immediately said "no deal," which furthered concerns about the supply of oil in the future.
And speaking of oil, Tropical Depression Five officially became Tropical Storm Ernesto on Friday. With the anniversary of Katrina upon us, it was easy to get caught up in the projections of when Ernesto would become a hurricane and then more importantly, where its path would ultimately lead. As of Friday afternoon, forecasters were projecting that Ernesto would reach hurricane status and cut a swath directly into the oil-rich Gulf. But, by this morning, the storm is still flirting with hurricane status and its path appears to have turned more northward, with only the southern tip of Florida appearing to be at risk.
So with nothing from Mr. Bernanke, a very thin trading environment, higher oil prices, and growing concerns about the state of the housing market and the economy, it is little wonder that blue chips wound up slogging lower on Friday. And unfortunately, with another holiday weekend coming up, the lackluster environment could continue this week.
However, unlike last week, this week�s economic calendar is rather robust. While there are no economic reports slated for release today, the rest of the week is pretty full.
Tuesday � Consumer Confidence
Wednesday � 2nd Quarter GDP Preliminary Estimate
Thursday � Personal Income and Spending, Chicago Purchasing Managers, Factor Orders
Friday � Employment Report, UofM Consumer Sentiment, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing
Turning to this morning, the dull environment appears to still be in place as there is little in the way of catalysts so far. Oil is trading down more than a dollar on the news that Ernesto will apparently not pose a threat to the Gulf, but other than that, things are pretty quiet.
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the overseas markets are fractionally lower. Gold futures are moving a little higher this morning and are currently exchanging hands at $631.70. Crude futures are lower by $1.18 at the moment and are trading at $71.33. Interest rates are also little changed this morning with the 2-year currently quoted at 4.88% while the 10-yr is trading with a yield of 4.80% right now. And finally, with about an hour before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. aren�t doing much. The Dow futures are currently off by 8, the S&Ps are down by 1.20, and the NASDAQ is sporting a fractional advance on an upgrade of Intel.
Stocks "In Play" This Morning:
Starwood Hotels (HOT) � Mentioned positively in Barron�s
Hilton Hotels (HLT) � Mentioned positively in Barron�s
Altria (MO) � WSJ speculates KFT could be spun off by Wednesday
Intel (INTC) � Upgraded at Friedman Billings Ramsey
Nvidia (NVDA) � Upgraded at Friedman Billings Ramsey
Williams Sonoma (WSM) � Upgraded at Raymond James
US Steel (X) � Downgraded at Prudential
Wal-Mart (WMT) � August sales projected at high end of range
Kinder Morgan (KMI) � Entered agreement to sell to investor group
Chicos Fas (CHS) � Downgraded at CIBC
Dominion Res (D) � Downgraded at Citigroup
Universal Health (UHS) � Downgraded at Jefferies
Rohm & Haas (ROH) � Downgraded at Citigroup
Campbell Soup (CPB) � Downgraded at Credit Suisse
Brown Forman (BF.B) � Confirms purchase of Mexican tequila manufacturer
Long positions in stocks mentioned: BF.B
** For More of David Moenning�s Market Analysis, Stock Portfolios, and Trading Ideas, visit: www.TopGunsTrading.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of David Moenning, President of Heritage Capital Management and Co-Founder of TopGunsTrading.com and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning�s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security or Heritage Capital program. No part of this material is intended as an investment recommendation. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any of HCM�s programs. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. Investors should consult an Investment Professional before investing in any investment program. Neither Mr. Moenning or Heritage Capital Management nor any of their employees shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information contained herein. Mr. Moenning and employees of HCM may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while this publication is in circulation. The analysis contained is based on both technical and fundamental research. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
You May Also Be Interested In
- After-Hours Movers: AMAT, DLO, GLOB, YSS, ETON
- After-Hours Movers: CRWV, NBIS, SMCI, LITE, CAVA, HRB
- After-Hours Movers: CSCO, COHR, HLIT, CBRS, STUB, ENS
Create E-mail Alert Related Categories
Contributors, Special ReportsSign up for StreetInsider Free!
Receive full access to all new and archived articles, unlimited portfolio tracking, e-mail alerts, custom newswires and RSS feeds - and more!
