Crude oil could break out of recent range - BofA

March 1, 2024 9:03 AM EST - Crude oil prices have risen Friday, but remain trapped in a tight trading range as price volatility has fallen to pre-Covid lows. Technical analysis suggests an upside breakout is a possibility, according to Bank of America Securities.

Goldman Sachs, in a recent note, said it expects the $70-$90 a barrel range to continue for the foreseeable future, citing a modest geopolitical risk premium, the OPEC put limiting downside risk, and robust non-OPEC supply growth keeping pace with solid global demand growth.

However, BofA Securities noted that the commodity is approaching three-month highs and a range breakout is a possibility.

An ascending triangle bottom, rising simple moving averages, bullish weekly MACD [moving average convergence divergence] cross and year-to-date strength favor upside into the mid-$90s in the second quarter, BofA said, in a technical analysis note dated Feb. 29.

The bank’s analysts noted that the currency is trading in an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart, with bulls becoming more aggressive by buying at higher lows while bears fade the same resistance level.

“An upside breakout through resistance at $84.80-85.00 will confirm a bottom pattern and uptrend target of $91.06, $93.80, maybe $95.00 by end Q2. Must hold support line in March is $79.50-80.00. If this breaks, oil can go back to the bottom of the range at $75-73,” BofA said.

The weekly chart shows a wider range, of about $73-$96, while the monthly chart shows the 50m and 200m simple moving averages are rising and supporting the price.

“Speculatively, a daily chart breakout higher and uptrend will mean the resistant trend line in this monthly chart breaks and a bullish monthly MACD cross follows. This would increase upside risk for an oil rally to $100-110/brl this year,” BofA Securities said.

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