US sees oil disruptions from Iran conflict reaching 600,000 bpd

Investing.com -- The United States expects oil supply disruptions from the US-Iran war to reach approximately 600,000 barrels per day through the end of next year as the conflict continues to restrict shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil transported through the waterway averaged 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook. This represents a sharp decline from an average of 21.6 million barrels per day in the last quarter of 2025, before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran.

The data shows that a brief pause in fighting, when a memorandum of understanding was signed, did little to reduce the impact of the disruption to global energy markets. A deal between Iran and Oman to reopen the strait has not been reached, though officials indicate talks are progressing.

As the conflict enters its sixth month, consumers worldwide face the possibility of higher fuel prices and inflation. The EIA raised gasoline and diesel price forecasts for 2026 by 3.7% and 5.4% respectively and increased its 2027 forecast for retail gasoline prices by 6.5% from its estimates a month earlier.

The volume of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to determine in real time, as vessels going dark obscure shipping activity. About 9 million barrels of oil a day exited the strait on average over the past week, according to Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

The agency estimates that Middle East production shut-ins eased to average about 5.5 million barrels a day in July, compared to 7.5 million barrels a day in June. The volume of oil shut in is expected to increase again to 6.6 million barrels a day in the third quarter.

Multiple Middle Eastern countries have been forced to reduce output as limited access to global markets strains available storage capacity.

The report assumes that recent threats to vessels carrying Saudi Arabian crude through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not resulted in additional production shut-ins. If that assumption holds, the agency expects most production and trade flows to return to pre-war levels by early 2027.

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