UBS sees Tesla Q3 deliveries running ahead of Wall Street consensus

Investing.com -- Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries could outpace Wall Street expectations, according to UBS.

Analysts at the bank said in a note to clients that they have lifted their forecast to about 475,000 units, which is “~8% above Visible Alpha consensus,” though they added it is “more inline with buyside expectations in the 470–475k range.”

UBS raised its estimate from 431,000, noting that such a result would be up 3% year on year and 24% sequentially.

The firm expects Tesla to report on October 2. “Despite a print that may be inline with buyside expectations, we tend to find the stock does react to beat/misses vs. the headline number,” UBS said.

Several factors inform the higher forecast. UBS highlighted “strong deliveries in the US as Tesla pushes, and consumers take advantage of, the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit before its expiry at the end of September 2025.”

The bank added that the quarter could mark “the highest quarterly US deliveries since mid-2023 and potentially the highest ever,” while warning demand is likely being pulled forward, pointing to a sequential drop in Q4.

Europe is also said to be trending better, with deliveries in the top eight markets up about 22% quarter-on-quarter through the first two months. In China, retail deliveries rose roughly 45% quarter-on-quarter, and UBS also flagged “strong delivery growth” in Turkey and South Korea.

UBS expects deliveries to exceed production by about 7%, helping reduce the inventory that built up in Q2. The bank maintained its full-year forecast of 1.62 million vehicles for 2025, but projected just 428,000 in Q4, down 14% year on year.

You May Also Be Interested In

• UBS Upgrades Apollo Tyres (APTY:IN) to Buy
• Boeing workers reject contract, authorize strike
• HSBC Downgrades China Power International (2380:HK) (CPWIF) to Hold