Truist sees ‘several avenues’ of earnings growth for Booking Holdings

Investing.com -- Truist analyst Gregory Miller upgraded Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG) to Buy from Hold in a note on Monday, citing long-term growth in Asian travel markets, steady global economic expansion, and an improved valuation backdrop.

The analyst said he expects “several avenues of near- and long-term earnings growth” for Booking, aided by the stock’s recent decline of about 7% over the past month, compared with a 2–3% gain for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.

Truist also raised its price target for BKNG to $5,750 from $5,630, maintaining a 22x multiple on its 2026 earnings forecast.

“Strong long-term Asia travel growth with +7–9% CAGRs of air passenger traffic over the next 20 years in South and Southeast Asia” was a key driver of the upgrade, Miller wrote.

Booking’s exposure to Asia is said to have risen to around 25%, up from about 20% before the pandemic.

The analyst also highlighted “annual global GDP growth forecasts of ~+3% in 2025/2026/2027 (and 1–2 points faster in Asia),” noting that GDP trends “correlate to travel demand over time.”

Meanwhile, Miller believes investor worries about the impact of artificial intelligence on online travel agencies provides “arguably too much near-term concern,” adding that “there is no consensus on long-term impact.”

Elsewhere, the firm lifted its Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE) price target to $210 from $168, citing “self-help factors such as improved positioning for Vrbo and improving investor sentiment.”

However, it maintained a Hold rating on the stock, citing mixed U.S. leisure trends and limited visibility on international expansion.

Truist continues to see “healthy growth for the OTAs” but warned that valuations are not "riskless” amid a mid-to-late cycle travel environment.

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