Tesla stock target lifted at RBC on potential SpaceX merger

Investing.com -- RBC Capital lifted its price target on Tesla to $500 from $475 in a note on Tuesday, incorporating a premium tied to a potential combination with SpaceX, while also updating its standalone intrinsic valuation of the electric vehicle maker.

Analyst Tom Narayan said the new target reflects "a 25-30% premium to current trading levels (and a 15% premium to the stock's intrinsic value) owing to a potential SpaceX acquisition scenario based on unconfirmed media reports."

RBC said the most likely deal structure would be an all-stock transaction with SpaceX acquiring Tesla at a 20-30% premium, with the rationale centered on "operational collaboration — proprietary chip manufacturing, Megapacks for data center energy needs, and collaborative AI training and fleet management services."

RBC stated that existing Tesla shareholders would require a premium partly because CEO Elon Musk "would control 50%+ of a combined entity, well above the ~20% stake he currently holds in Tesla."

Excluding any SpaceX premium, RBC arrived at a Tesla intrinsic value of $435 per share. Within that valuation, Narayan raised the robotaxi segment by 20%, driven by a higher global market fleet forecast, describing it as "currently Tesla's most robust opportunity" against a $4.2 trillion total addressable market.

However, RBC cut its humanoid valuation by approximately 40%, reflecting a revised U.S. market share assumption of 20%, down from 50%, and trimmed its energy storage valuation by 30% on a lower global market forecast and increasing competitive pressure.

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