Qualcomm downgraded as handset headwinds grow: Mizuho

Investing.com -- Qualcomm shares face new pressure, down around 1.4% premarket on Friday after Mizuho downgraded the stock to Neutral, citing mounting headwinds in the global handset market and the loss of Apple modem share.

Analyst Vijay Rakesh wrote that Mizuho is “downgrading QCOM to Neutral with handset headwinds as it loses AAPL share in F26/27E.”

The downgrade comes as Mizuho forecasts a softer year for smartphones, noting “continued challenges in PC/Handset (RF) with 1) memory px demand destruction, 2) China competition/subsidy headwind, and 3) iPhone units down y/y.”

The firm said China’s increasing in-sourcing of components and weakening global device demand are weighing on Qualcomm’s core business.

“QCOM could see headwinds with handsets accounting for >70% QCT revenue as we estimate global handsets units could decline 0-2% y/y,” wrote Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh.

When it comes to the iPhone specifically, the analyst sees a potential $2 to $3 billion topline headwind for Qualcomm, as he forecasts iPhone units to be down 7% year-on-year in 2026.

Finally, while “strong double-digit growth rates for QCOM’s non-handset businesses in Auto and IoT is a positive,” Mizuho believes the “near-term will not fully offset the >70% handset exposed QCT and iPhone content loss headwinds.”

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