Mexico air travel results show pressure from oil prices

Investing.com -- Jefferies reported Tuesday that Mexican airport operator GAPB and airline Aeroméxico (AERO) posted soft results for the second quarter of 2026, reflecting headwinds in Mexico's air travel sector.

Aeroméxico reported second-quarter EBITDAR of $264 million, down 21% from the previous quarter and at the low end of its quarterly guidance. The results included a $30 million fuel headwind. Revenues increased 12.5%, while EBITDAR margin reached 18%.

Premium revenues represented 43% of passenger-related revenue, one percentage point above the same period in 2025. The airline generated $360 million in net operating cash flow, which it used for investment and debt reduction.

For the second half of 2026, Aeroméxico management guided to revenue increases of 12-14% year-over-year in the third quarter and 14.5-16.5% in the fourth quarter. EBITDAR margins are expected at 26.5-29.5% and 28-31% respectively. This implies full-year 2026 EBITDAR of $1.45-1.59 billion, compared to FactSet consensus of $1.5 billion.

The guidance assumes average all-in fuel prices of $3.2 per gallon for the third quarter and $3 per gallon for the fourth quarter. Spot U.S. jet-fuel price currently stands at $3.38 per gallon following recent tensions between Iran and the United States.

Airport operator GAPB posted second-quarter EBITDA of 6 billion Mexican pesos, up 8% year-over-year. Passenger traffic fell 6% year-over-year, partially offset by higher commercial revenues per passenger and the consolidation of the CBX segment. Operating costs remained flat year-over-year despite a 22% increase in employee costs. EBITDA margin expanded 200 basis points to 69%.

GAPB updated its full-year 2026 guidance to reflect recent traffic trends. The company now expects passenger traffic growth of negative 3% to flat, compared to previous guidance of positive 2-5%. EBITDA is projected to increase 10-12% year-over-year, compared to 8-11% previously. Capital expenditure guidance was reduced to 12 billion pesos from 13.5 billion pesos.

Jefferies maintained Hold ratings on both GAPB and Aeroméxico.

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