Mastercard may outperform Visa on revenue growth in 2027

Investing.com -- Mastercard has trailed Visa by about 10% over the past year as revenue growth between the two companies converged, according to Bernstein. In the last two quarters, Visa reported revenue growth of 16% compared to 15% for Mastercard, versus historical levels of 2-3 percentage point revenue growth outperformance by Mastercard.

Looking into 2027, Bernstein expects Mastercard to modestly outperform Visa on revenue growth. The firm cites several factors supporting this view, including Mastercard's value-added services growth likely outperforming Visa's as Visa laps non-recurring FIFA and Olympics benefits. Mastercard will also almost fully lap approximately 1 percentage point volume headwind from Capital One in 2027.

Mastercard's volume growth should also improve compared to Visa's in 2027. The first quarter of 2026 marked the first quarter since 2021 in which Mastercard's purchase volumes were not higher than Visa's. Some of Mastercard's volume deceleration in 2026 relates to Capital One debit and slowing share gains in Europe.

For value-added services, Bernstein estimates that Visa's VAS growth this quarter included about 4-5 percentage points of mergers and acquisitions, mid-single digit percentage points of FIFA World Cup-related marketing services, and potentially mid-single digit to high-single digit percentage points of pricing-related tailwind. Mastercard's second quarter 2026 number is largely organic. On a like-for-like basis, the firm believes the two companies' VAS growth rates are likely somewhat similar at high-teens.

Bernstein also notes Mastercard's positioning in security solutions, which represent about 40% of Mastercard's VAS revenue and 17% for Visa. Mastercard management recently highlighted that Mastercard Threat Intelligence helped prevent about $172 million of fraud in the past three quarters.

Bernstein projects about 13% revenue growth for Mastercard and about 12% for Visa in 2027. The firm now has a slight preference for Mastercard given the narrowing of the multiple premium and expectations for slightly faster revenue growth in 2027.

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