Jefferies: EU auto registrations rise 5.2% in July

Investing.com -- Vehicle registrations in five major European Union markets increased 5.2% year-over-year in July when adjusted for working days, according to Jefferies.

Year-to-date unit growth stood at 6.4% year-over-year. Growth excluding Chinese and other manufacturers reached 1.5% for the year and 1.3% in July. The UK and France recorded the strongest growth among the five markets.

Battery electric vehicle penetration jumped 8.5 percentage points year-over-year to 23.7%. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles increased 1.4 percentage points to 11.5%. Chinese original equipment manufacturers and others gained 3.3 percentage points of market share, while Volkswagen lost 2.0 percentage points and Ford dropped 0.9 percentage points.

Jefferies estimated total European sales rose 3.7% year-over-year to 1.1 million units. The market remained approximately 28% below 2019 levels.

The UK grew 11.7% year-over-year and France increased 9%, both on easier comparisons. Italy and Spain each grew near 4%, while Germany lagged at 1% growth despite an order backlog up 10% year-over-year.

France achieved a record 35% battery electric vehicle share following the July 16 relaunch of the "leasing social" Round 3 program. The UK reached 27.5% battery electric vehicle share, with battery electric vehicles up 44.5% year-over-year, aided by ZEV-mandate discounting despite the absence of consumer grants. Italy and Spain showed more hybrid-led growth, with hybrid electric vehicles up 48% year-over-year in Italy and 47% in Spain.

Italy's UNRAE raised its 2026 outlook to approximately 1.61 million units, representing 5.5% growth and a recovery of more than 84,000 units. The UK's SMMT lifted its 2026 battery electric vehicle share forecast to 27.4% from 26.8% in April and 32.1% for 2027.

Among manufacturers, Mercedes-Benz Group, Renault and Toyota posted above-market growth. Tesla, Ford, Nissan, Volkswagen, Volvo and Stellantis underperformed the market.

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