Goldman Sachs keeps payroll forecast at 75k despite ADP miss

Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs maintained its July nonfarm payroll growth forecast at 75,000 following the release of weaker-than-expected ADP employment data.

The ADP report showed private sector employment increased by 44,000 in July on a seasonally adjusted basis, falling short of market expectations. Services sector employment rose by 47,000, driven primarily by a 36,000 gain in education and health services. Leisure and hospitality employment declined by 11,000.

Goods-producing industries shed 3,000 jobs during the month, mainly reflecting a 6,000 drop in natural resources employment.

Median annual pay for workers who remained in their jobs rose 4.4% year-over-year in July, matching the June pace. Workers who changed jobs saw pay increase 7.0%, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month.

Goldman Sachs said it does not assign significant importance to the ADP shortfall due to the report's limited real-time correlation with Bureau of Labor Statistics private payroll data in recent years. The firm's forecast remains below the consensus estimate of 80,000 ahead of Friday's official employment report release.

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