Goldman Sachs forecasts July nonfarm payrolls at 75k

Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs projects that nonfarm payrolls increased by 75,000 in July, slightly below the consensus estimate of 80,000. The investment bank cited several factors influencing its forecast.

The firm expects a small boost from World Cup hiring, which began to unwind only after the July reference period. This positive factor is offset by several negative indicators tracked by Goldman Sachs.

Alternative measures of job growth monitored by the bank showed a modest slowdown between June and July. The firm noted that payroll growth has decelerated from its previous trend and has historically missed consensus expectations in July in recent years. The forecast also accounts for negative revisions to job growth figures from prior months.

Goldman Sachs anticipates the unemployment rate will increase by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%, above the consensus forecast of 4.2%. The bank attributes this rise partly to modest upward pressure from compositional effects related to the reversal of June's large decline in participation.

The firm forecasts average hourly earnings will rise 0.3% month-over-month, matching the consensus estimate.

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