Citadel’s Rubner says it’s time to start buying gold again

Investing.com - Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner has started advocating for adding structural exposure to gold for the first time in 2026, calling the current precious metals setup "one of the more compelling upside setups we have seen in precious metals in months."

The assessment centers on five converging catalysts that the firm believes create asymmetric upside for both gold and silver. Investors can gain direct exposure through the SPDR Gold Shares ETF and the iShares Silver Trust, the two instruments Rubner analyzed in detail.

In GLD, the firm notes that implied volatility is lifting from a low base while put/call skew has inverted to its deepest level since February — a configuration that historically signals accumulating bullish conviction.

"We are seeing the same dynamic in SLV, with implied volatility beginning to lift and skew meaningfully inverting," the firm wrote, suggesting the silver market is following gold's lead in repricing upside risk.

On positioning, Rubner's CTA analysis shows both gold and silver held net short as of August 6, a condition the firm views as fuel rather than a headwind.

"With positioning still offsides versus an improving macro backdrop, renewed upside momentum could drive systematic buying and add another source of demand," the note states.

The implication is that a price breakout could trigger a self-reinforcing covering rally among trend-following funds currently on the wrong side of the trade.

Moreover, Rubner points to markets repricing the Federal Reserve toward a more dovish path as a direct tailwind for non-yielding assets, with continued U.S. dollar weakness compounding that dynamic.

The firm also flags Treasury and FX intervention concerns as reinforcing gold's role as a reserve asset, a narrative that gains traction alongside accelerating central-bank demand.

Elsewhere, China sits at the center of that demand story. Data compiled by Citadel Securities shows China's gold purchases have been accelerating on a monthly basis since at least December 2024, contributing to what the firm describes as a broader recovery in official-sector demand globally.

The retail angle may be where Rubner sees the most underappreciated upside, particularly in silver. He observes that precious metals have been largely crowded out of retail attention by the AI trade, leaving a large pool of potential incremental buyers on the sidelines.

"Precious metals have largely been overlooked by retail amid the dominance of the AI trade, leaving significant capacity for participation to reaccelerate if momentum builds," the note reads.

Rubner points to the January-February rally as a recent proof of concept: "The January-February rally demonstrated how quickly retail can become a meaningful source of incremental demand."

Taken together, the five catalysts — dovish Fed repricing, accelerating central-bank purchases, net-short CTA positioning, bullish options dynamics in GLD and SLV, and untapped retail participation, form what Rubner describes as a rare simultaneous alignment.

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