Biogen to gain from Novo Nordisk Alzheimer’s failure, says Jefferies

Investing.com -- Biogen shares could benefit from Novo Nordisk’s Phase III Evoke/Evoke+ trials failure, according to analysts at Jefferies.

The trials, which tested semaglutide (GLP1) in early Alzheimer’s disease, did not meet the primary endpoint of CDR-sb, the company announced on Monday. Novo Nordisk also said it will discontinue the 1-year extension period in the Evoke trials. The disappointing trial outcome sent Novo shares over 10% lower in pre-market trading.

Jefferies believes the trial result removes an overhang for Biogen, softening the competitive landscape and potentially accelerating sales of Leqembi, Biogen’s antibeta Alzheimer’s treatment.

Several potential positive developments could drive Biogen’s stock higher in 2026-27, according to the Jefferies report published Monday, including Leqembi’s potential sales acceleration with a convenient at-home subQ injectable IQLIK (with potential induction approval by mid-2026), base business resilience, and possible Phase II/III pipeline successes in 2026-28.

The analysts note that while market expectations for Novo’s trial were already low, the negative outcome makes the antibeta class more valuable, potentially allowing Leqembi to accelerate in the medium term with its new subQ maintenance therapy launched in October 2025.

Jefferies also highlighted Eli Lilly’s Kisunla (antibeta) TB-3 preclinical Alzheimer’s readout, expected between year-end 2025 and the first half of 2026. The analysts suggest that positive results could derisk the broader antibeta class, providing positive implications for Biogen’s AHEAD 3-45 study, which has data expected in 2028 or later.

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