Bernstein sees improving June spirits trends but no recovery yet

Investing.com -- US spirits industry volumes showed improvement in June but remained far from a recovery, according to Bernstein analyst data. June volumes rose 4.8% in NABCA data, marking the strongest monthly performance since October 2024.

The three-month rolling volumes reached 0.6%, though this figure dropped to negative 2.2% when excluding ready-to-drink cocktails. Nielsen data showed a 4.3% increase over 12 weeks ending July 11, driven largely by pre-mixed cocktails. Excluding cocktails, Nielsen volumes fell 4.6%.

Price-mix trends remained negative across channels. All-channel NABCA data showed negative 2.3% price-mix in the three months through June, while Nielsen price-mix was negative 5.2%, or negative 0.2% excluding RTDs. The analyst estimated a 4% industry value decline for full-strength spirits, comprising a 3% volume decline and 1% negative price-mix.

Spirits-based RTDs continued as the fastest-growing category, led by Cutwater from Anheuser-Busch InBev, Surfside by Stateside Vodka, and Sun Cruiser from Boston Beer. Tequila volumes grew 2% and accelerated in NABCA data.

Diageo underperformed the market by 130 basis points excluding RTDs in three-month NABCA volumes. Crown Royal fell 6%, Don Julio declined 7% versus 27% growth a year earlier, Smirnoff dropped 3%, and Captain Morgan fell 5%. Casamigos showed improved decline rates at negative 6%.

Pernod Ricard underperformed the market by 180 basis points excluding RTDs. Jameson declined 2% and Absolut vodka fell 5%. Malibu rum grew 3%, Código rose 13%, and Skrewball jumped 33%.

Brown-Forman volumes fell 2% excluding RTDs, beating the market by 20 basis points. Jack Daniel's family declined 3%, with Black Label down 7% and flavors up 14%. Woodford Reserve rose 2% and Old Forester gained 1%.

Campari grew 1.1% in three-month NABCA data, beating the market by 330 basis points. Aperol grew 3%, Espolòn tequila rose 18%, and the Campari brand gained 2%. SKYY fell 11%, Wild Turkey dropped 6%, and Grand Marnier declined 5%.

Proximo volumes fell 1.3% excluding RTDs, beating the market by 80 basis points. Cuervo tequila grew 1% while 1800 declined 4%.

Rémy Cointreau volumes declined 0.3% in three-month NABCA data, outperforming the market by 190 basis points. Cointreau grew 7% while Rémy Martin cognac fell 7%.

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