Barclays sees music streaming growth narrow gap with Spotify

Investing.com - Major music companies posted streaming growth of 8.3% on average in the second quarter of 2026, with Warner Music Group (NASDAQ: WMG) leading at 11.3%, followed by Sony Music Group at 9.7% and Universal Music Group (AMS:UMG) at 5.6%, according to Barclays' 12th Global music results wrap released Friday.

The gap between the major labels' performance and Spotify narrowed to 7 percentage points from an all-time high of 17 percentage points in the second quarter of 2024, though it remains the widest gap in the last six quarters. Spotify posted 14.6% growth in the period.

Universal Music Group said its second-quarter subscription streaming growth of 6.7% benefited from a 3.5 percentage point tailwind from streaming 2.0 pricing, while market share was a 1.5 percentage point drag and revenue recognition was a 1.0 percentage point drag. Warner Music Group also cited a 3.5 percentage point pricing impact from new deals out of its second-quarter subscription streaming growth of 11.8%, while benefiting from positive market-share trends of more than 1%.

Volume growth was 7% for Warner Music Group and 6% for Universal Music Group in the second quarter. Warner Music Group did not disclose revenue recognition as a headwind or tailwind, though breakdown of subscription streaming growth for Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group has only been disclosed for two quarters.

Spotify is guiding to third-quarter 2026 revenues of €5.0 billion with a 200 basis point tailwind from foreign exchange, implying 17.0% reported revenue growth and 15.0% constant currency growth. Barclays forecasts Universal Music Group third-quarter 2026 streaming growth of 8.1%, comprising 10.0% subscription streaming and 1.5% non-subscription streaming.

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