Baird downgrades GEV on competition and power overcapacity fears

Investing.com -- Baird analysts downgraded GE Vernova LLC (NYSE: GEV) to Neutral, citing rising concerns around potential overcapacity in the power equipment market.

Competitors like Doosan, Boom Technology, FTAI Aviation Ltd (NASDAQ: FTAI) and CAT, entering or are expanding in the power space.



While the market conditions remain tight in the near term such developments changes sentiment against what had become a consensus long trade.

Baird said its long-term view of GEV as a leader in power and electrification is unchanged and that it continues to see the stock as a core holding over time. But analysts said they are moving to the sidelines in the near term as questions build around future supply and pricing.

GEV expects to have up to 20 GW of annual heavy-duty turbine capacity by mid-2026, plus about 2 GW of aero units. Including estimated capacity at Siemens and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, it is close to 60 GW of annual heavy-duty capacity among the three major suppliers.

Given growing oversupply concerns and GEV’s cautious stance on expansion, Baird does not expect the company to announce additional heavy-duty turbine capacity in the near term while the supply-demand outlook remains uncertain.

Baird said GEV should still be able to meet or exceed estimates through 2028 and beyond, supported by margin strength and longer-term upside in services. But it expects pricing for new power bookings, which extend late into the decade, to come under pressure as new capacity comes online.

GE Vernova stock rose 99% in value in 2025, compared with a 16% gain for the S&P 500. GEV is trading at about 30x consensus 2026 EBITDA, a multiple Baird expects to compress until supply-demand visibility improves.

Baird cut its price target to $649 from $816.

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