BMW cuts 2025 earnings guidance on China slowdown, U.S. tariffs

Investing.com -- German luxury automaker BMW on Tuesday lowered its 2025 earnings forecast, citing slow growth in China and U.S. import tariffs.

The company now expects a slight decline in group earnings before tax, revising its previous guidance that projected earnings to remain at the same level as 2024.

Additionally, BMW cut its expected return on capital employed (ROCE) for its automotive business to between 8% and 10%, down from the previous forecast of 9% to 13%.

In a statement released Tuesday, BMW also said that reimbursements of customs duties from American and German authorities, totaling a high three-digit million figure, will not be received in 2025 as previously expected but will instead be paid out in 2026. Taking these delays into account, the free cash flow in BMW’s automotive segment for 2025 is expected to be above €2.5 billion.

Despite the revised outlook, BMW confirmed that its dividend payout ratio will remain in the corridor of 30% to 40% of net income attributable to BMW AG shareholders. The company also reaffirmed its commitment to its previously announced share buyback program.

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