BCA says time to buy gold as near-term headwinds fade

Investing.com -- BCA Research told clients that gold's recent selloff is running out of steam and that its tactical headwinds are easing, making the case for going long on the metal.

The firm noted gold has slumped 26% since its Jan. 29 all-time high, after ranking among the top performers in 2025.

It "failed to provide protection during the inflationary shock from the Iran war," BCA said, and quickly fell out of favor among analysts. Still, the firm's view is that "the selloff is getting long in the tooth," with the worst of the downturn likely behind it.

Central to BCA's call is the argument that real rates, rather than inflation, drive gold, describing its reputation as an inflation hedge as "overstated."

The firm said the worst of the headwind from real rates is likely past, while the U.S. dollar should shift "from being a headwind to a tailwind to the yellow metal."

BCA traced the bull market through three phases, from a surge in central bank demand starting in late 2022, to an ETF-driven pickup in 2025, to the current phase in which real rates and the dollar have "reasserted themselves as the dominant drivers."

It added that elevated central bank buying now provides a floor for prices rather than driving further gains.

BCA believes geopolitics and reserve diversification should continue to support gold structurally, both directly through central bank purchases and indirectly via a weakening dollar.

You May Also Be Interested In

• Jefferies Starts Latigo Biotherapeutics (LTGO) at Buy
• Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) PT Raised to $345 at Rosenblatt
• Canaccord Reiterates Buy Rating on BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN)