AstraZeneca reviews potential Bristol Myers deal, Barclays comments

Investing.com -- AstraZeneca is examining a potential acquisition of Bristol Myers Squibb, the Financial Times reported, though both companies have declined to comment on the matter.

Barclays analysts said they do not view a deal as imminent, noting that while Bristol Myers' cash-flow generating base business would provide strong synergies for a buyer, these benefits would be limited due to upcoming loss of exclusivity events.

Bristol Myers raised its guidance for Eliquis last week for fiscal year 2026. The company's oncology drug Opdivo is expected by consensus to generate more than $10 billion in revenues this year and next. Both products are scheduled to face U.S. generic or biosimilar competition in 2028.

The company recently pushed out timelines for LIBREXIA-AF for milvexian in atrial fibrillation and the ADEPT trials in Alzheimer's disease psychosis for Cobenfy.

Barclays' current net present value of $77.70 per share assigns a 60% probability of success to milvexian in atrial fibrillation and secondary stroke prevention with $11.5 billion in peak sales potential across both indications. The firm assigns a 54% probability for Cobenfy in Alzheimer's disease psychosis with $4.3 billion peak sales potential and 50% probability for admilparant in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis with $3.1 billion peak sales potential.

If all pipeline programs succeed, Barclays' valuation would increase to $88.20 per share, representing 35% above Friday's closing price. If all programs fail, the valuation would fall to $63.10, or 3% below Friday's closing price.

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