Diamondback Energy (FANG) PT Lowered to $194 at Mizuho

Mizuho analyst Nitin Kumar lowered the price target on Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ: FANG) to $194.00 (from $204.00) while maintaining a Outperform rating.

The analyst comments "We expect relatively in-line EBITDA/CFPS from FANG in 1Q25 compared to current consensus, while the company may use recent weakness to buy back stock. Coming into 2025, FANG was one of the most vocal proponents of targeting maintenance spending in the face of potential oil price volatility. Given the recent moves in both commodity prices and macroeconomic sentiment (Liberation Day, OPEC+) we would look for thoughts on lowering activity levels. We would note that there is plenty of cushion given the $37/bbl FCF breakeven (including base dividend). Indeed, with post-Double Eagle deleveraging plans supported by ~$1.5bn of (mostly midstream) asset sales, the company could use its cash generation to return "50% or more' of cash to shareholders via the buyback given recent stock price weakness. We lower our NAV ~4% to $194, but reiterate Outperform rating."

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