Waste Management (WM) PT Raised to $260 at Bernstein SocGen Group

Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Connor Cerniglia raised the price target on Waste Management (NYSE: WM) to $260.00 (from $255.00) while maintaining an Outperform rating.

The analyst commented: "We expect volume improvement in 2026 alongside declining capex spending and new RNG investments coming online. Together, this should drive an inflection in FCF with Waste Management standing to benefit the most within our coverage. RNG projects should translate into $760m-$800m in run rate EBITDA by 2027 (adding 12% growth versus FY24 EBITDA), with lower capex, and an improving core business altogether driving a FY25-28 FCF CAGR of 20%, above peers like Waste Connections (17%) and Republic Services (10%). We expect contract rationalization, automation, and price-cost discipline to drive ~50bp in EBITDA margin improvement annually through FY26-28 vs. consensus of 30bp. WM is also the cheapest in our Waste coverage in part due to concerns around the Stericycle acquisition, making it attractive on an absolute and relative basis. If management can execute in the next year on new Sustainability investments and the Stericycle integration, we see upside to consensus numbers paired with a multiple re-rating from 13.5x to 14.5x EV/NTM EBITDA driving an added 19% upside from current levels."

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