UPDATE: XPeng (XPEV) PT Raised to $50.30 at Citi

Citi analyst Jeff Chung raised the price target on XPeng (NYSE: XPEV) to $50.30 (from $50.00) while maintaining a Buy rating.

The analyst comments "Terminal value suggests XP > NIO: We estimate the terminal value on XPeng with the following conclusion – Ultimate XPeng market cap is equivalent to US$32.2bn vehicle market cap + US$43bn software earnings market cap (total at US$75.3bn, 87% higher than market cap calculated based on our P/S driven TP). Comparing with NIO, its market cap based on terminal value was only 1% higher than market cap based on P/S driven TP. Our estimation has factored in (1) For vehicle market cap we discount the terminal value by assuming XPeng’s matured blended-ASP to be Rmb175k and annual sales volume 244k/745k units by 2025E/30E (3.1% of 2025E China NEV market shares) warrant a potential 8% NPM and 8x divisional PER in 2025E; (2) For software business we apply the same methodology by assuming 100% auto-pilot take-rate in in 2030E, and ASP at Rmb10k per vehicle (all-in price upon purchase) by 2030E, warranting a 15x divisional PER."

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