UBS Resumes Medpace (MEDP) at Neutral

UBS analyst Kevin Caliendo resumes coverage on Medpace (NASDAQ: MEDP) with a Neutral rating and a price target of $673.00.

The analyst comments: “We assume coverage of MEDP at Neutral. We believe market expectations for revenue growth and margins are reasonable and valuation is highest in the CRO peer group limiting the potential for multiple upside. Strong 2Q26 results set the bar higher for bookings and earnings in 2H26, which we believe investors are expecting.

TTM biotech funding is up 87% y/y and is highly correlated to bookings, especially MEDP since the company derives 95% of its revenue from biotechs. Biotech R&D is expected to grow 6.4%/yr led by small biotech growth of 6.7%/yr (organic growth of 8.2%/yr). 2Q26 ending backlog is up 3.6% from 1Q24 levels while revenue is up 38% over that period, so backlog coverage is down significantly. MEDP needs to refill backlog quickly or is at risk of a material revenue slowdown from its mid-teens to 20% average growth rate.

Based on a reverse DCF we estimate that the market is currently pricing in: +7-8% revenue growth CAGR and ~15-35bps of annual margin expansion over a 10-year reverse DCF (assuming a 27x EV/ EBITDA exit multiple in 2036, in-line with the current NTM multiple). Consensus is forecasting a ~7.5% rev growth CAGR and ~25bp of annual EBITDA margin expansion from 2026-2030E.”

For an analyst ratings summary and ratings history on Medpace click here. For more ratings news on Medpace click here.

Shares of Medpace closed at $622.11 yesterday.

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