TotalEnergies SE (TTE) PT Raised to $83 at Wolfe Research

Wolfe Research analyst Doug Leggate raised the price target on TotalEnergies SE (NYSE: TTE) to $83.00 (from $81.00) while maintaining a Outperform rating.

The analyst comments "4Q25 trading statement underlines sustainable upstream margin expansion YoY oil & gas prod'n grown is ~5%, helped by the return of the Ichthys LNG plant from maintenance. 4Q25 is the 9th quarter demonstrating that TTE's l/term 3% growth target through 2030 is being accompanied by margin expansion. Strong refining earnings, marketing growth that holds 3Q earnings flat sequentially, and integrated power c/flow in line with guidance rounds out a solid quarter where overall c/flow is suggested flat yoy (~$7.3bn). Our updated EPS estimate is $1.79/sh (consensus of $1.66/sh). Including a $3bn release of w/cap & $2bn of disposals, gearing drops to 15%, meeting the y/end guidance set by management. Sustained E&P margin improvement: PT to $83/sh In recent quarters we have observed that with new project starts led by Brazil & the GoA, TTE's unit upstream ‘capture’ rate is improving. Vs a legacy portfolio leverage capturing ~92% of Brent, the last nine quarters has now seen this increase by 5%-10% as the asset mix has changed. With consistency for over 2yrs we believe it is appropriate to incorporate TTE's higher margin capture in the go-forward outlook, which alongside 4Q net debt reduction lifts our DCF based PT to $83/sh. With our 4Q25 update we include the pending 50% equity funded acquisition of EPH' power assets, scheduled to complete in 1H26. With associated FcF around 2x the incremental dividend burden, and the acquisition displacing $1bn of annual growth capex, we see TTE's post div b/even continuing to trend lower, providing headroom for sustained dividend growth. Our updated PT of $83/sh assumes strip plus l/term Brent oil at $67.5/bbl and a market based cost of capital of 7.5%. We see our PT supported by capacity for per share dividend growth which at a sustained rate of 5-7% per share we believe converges on the value of underlying FcF."

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